Tuesday, January 31, 2017

What is the reason for the discrepancies between Western and Eastern Europe?




  1. WWII was far far far more of a tragedy for Eastern Europe than Western Europe. Most of the fighting and dying and displacement and literally millions of tragic horrors of that war went on in Eastern Europe. The Western front was little more than a sideshow to the main attraction which was the clash of two terrible totalitarian civilizations — Germany and the Soviet Union. The Holocaust happened here, and lest we forget, the Soviet Union had about an equal if not greater amount of people imprisoned in work camps, most of whom died.
  2. The aftermath of the War allowed the Soviet Union to pillage the industrial factories of Eastern Europe — in a climate where starvation and depravity had traumatized the people into accepting atrocity as normal, the stealing of their nation’s wealth by the Liberators just seemed par for the course.
  3. Reciprocal atrocities to ethnic Germans living in post-war Eastern Europe put a psychic stain on the countries.
  4. The political environment of Communist Europe absolutely depended on ordinary people to carry out the regimes’ dictates. Totalitarianism doesn’t work unless your friends, relatives and neighbors can’t be trusted.
  5. While post-war Western Europe had the Marshall Plan and a generally benevolent leader in the USA, who realized that the path to peace was prosperity, Eastern Europe had a mad capricious system that didn’t work and pretty much ate humans alive by the millions in some attempt to remake the world in an ideal image, even though that image was ugly, featureless and uninspiring.
All of these things left psychic scars on the people. IN my opinion, they have less faith in institutions than the West: because for too long the institutions were part of an inhuman, absurd system. AS a result, public areas are a bit less kept up, more dishevelled and ragged-looking. There seems to be less civic pride. (It is actually a poor way to judge a nation’s wealth, though — many Westerners make that mistake.)
When the governments fell, there was a mad rush to make money by Westerners and Easterners alike; this fostered a mafia culture to some extent; the EU has pretty much eradicated those problems in most countries(other than Bulgaria, perhaps) but they are still very much a thing further East(Ukraine and so on).
After the Cold War, the lands of formerly Communist Europe were at a severe disadvantage economically to the West. Western companies were easily able to snatch up factories for a good price, locking the people into a relatively low-wage existence. People in power facilitated that as a way to make the country grow economically.
But it created a catch-22: if the wages go too high, the foreign companies leave and there will be unemployment.


I live in the Czech Republic and my perspective comes from that. Other countries might have slightly different narratives: indeed, the Czech Republic is not that bad off and is becoming more “German” every year; by which I mean, more organized, more business-like, more proud of it’s institutions, better dressed and more “Western European”.

Is perception reality for Trump?

He doesn’t seem to care about substance and reality, but cares about size and numbers.
This is what makes Trump so very very dangerous.
Because he is right.
Oh, I don’t mean he has the truth on his side. And I would say that turning the inauguration into a ratings game was one of the most embarrassing thing I’ve seen a Leader of the Free World do.
But perception is reality for all practical purposes.
I mean the media has known that for years, that is why they are always accused of bias: they manipulate reality by manipulating the truth to tell and sell stories.
And politicians have always done the same with political spin, which, in effect, is just telling one side of the story. Not necessarily a total lie…but a manipulation of the truth.
And you can go further back. In Iron Curtain: The Crushing of Eastern Europe 1944 - 1956 by Anne Appelbaum, she documents at great length at how the Soviet governments and parties of many Eastern European countries, from East Germany to Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Yugoslavia, indulged in a systematic pattern of lies, alternative facts and obfuscations until the populace was literally unable to tell truth from non-truth. This was, at times, no less silly than Trump’s stupid ratings-gamificaton of the inauguration. I recall reading, for example, that at one point a radio programmer in East Berlin, while preparing a weather report that forecast “a cold front moving in from Moscow” that such language was prohibited as ‘only warm and good things come from Moscow.’ That is exactly the kind of thin-skinned mindset that characterizes Trump.
Trump is smarter than most liberals give him credit for. He knows exactly what he is doing. They still continue to underestimate him. It boggles the mind. They will be posting nonsense about him saying ‘bigly’ and not completing his sentences until they get thrown in the camps. His. Verbal. Foibles. Don’t. Matter.
Now, he may be a bit incompetent at the execution of state matters but when it comes to communication, propaganda and truth-spinning he is a giant among modern politicians, in my opinion. Showmanship counts.
Look, Trump depends on lies. He needs lies because what he wants to do is radically unprecedented in American history and he is risking impeachment at every step of the way and he knows it. So he needs the lies because he understands that, in the hyperpartisan atmosphere of the United States, the truth does not matter so much as the other side going down. These lies are then repeated and rebroadcast at incredible speed on social media, which in turns guarantees that, say, about 40 000 000 voters will parrot those lies.
And they do. Believe you me, the people are believing and spreading that nonsense about the Inauguration Day attendance by the tens of millions despite all photographic evidence otherwise.
This is why the institutions set up to prevent a horrible thing happening in the US are not going to work. Perhaps we can hold out hope for the courts, but I don’t think there is any hope in Congress.
IN this climate, Republican lawmakers are going to support Trump because a large(say 40%) of their base supports it, and they need that 40% support to keep from losing the election to the Democrats in 2018. AS long as he has 40 000 000 Republicans on his side, the rest of the Republicans and all of the Democrats can jump off a cliff — Congress is way too spineless to stand up to him.
This is why I scoff at the idea that Pence is more dangerous than Trump. Pence? That charisma-free corpse? No way. Trump is going to — already has — absolutely torn the national cohesion of the United States, forged by the fires of WWII and the Cold War, to bloody shreds.
Because the need for lies is going to grow until the point where new ‘alternative news’ organizations rise to spread it; and they will rival established, trusted news organizations in audience and popularity and, ultimately, respect.
How long can a nation living in two different bubble-realities go on before the tinder box blows?

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Is Prague in Eastern Europe?



 Prague is CENTRAL EUROPEAN.
Historically Prague has been part of the Kingdom of Bohemia, which was part of either the Holy Roman Empire or the Austrian-Hungarian Empire. Historically, I would probably put Prague down as Western Europe but twentieth century history has changed that.
But let’s get something straight. First of all, Europe is big and varied enough that it can bear more separation than into simple ‘East’ and “West.”
That division made some sense in the era of the Iron Curtain. They tore down the Iron Curtain 27 years ago, folks.
Prague(and the Czech Republic and Poland, and Slovakia and Hungary) is Central Europe. Basically the bit of the non-Balkan Austrian-Hungarian empire that fell into Soviet orbit after the War. (You know which war I’m talking about.)
For me the Czech Republic has the business culture of Germany with the engineering culture of, well, the Czech Republic, but there is an eastern flavor to the country; an unkempt don’t-give-a-fuck attitude towards public places; an ability to cut free and improvise in a fun and creative way that I don’t associate with Germany; some embarassing politicians, most of whom seem selected from the ugliest humans Czechia has to offer; too much graffiti; good-looking young women; and of course, some weird-ass home-brewed liquor.*
Yet the homes are perfectly kept with bright flowers and freshly mown lawns and landscaped gardens; sturdily-constructed houses built to last for two hundred years, not too different from Germany.
But old communist-built panel blocks still dominate the landscape. Again this mix of ‘East’ and ‘West.’
I’ve always thought of the Czech Republic as the perfect balance to the procedure obsessed, ultra-organized German thinking and the free-spirited, fun but chaotic thinking of the East…but nowadays, I think it’s more German than ‘Russian’ influenced.
Czech food is like most food of the former Austro-Hungaria super-state: meat, potatoes, sauces, dumplings, cabbage, stick-to-your-ribs, savory, filling, food you crave after a hard day skiing in the Tatras. I’m not sure what people in Eastern Europe eat, but my impression is it’s all, like, turnips and beets.
Czechs in Bohemia drink beer like there’s no tomorrow; Moravians drink more wine; everybody drinks slivovice, a kind of plum brandy that doubles as jet-plane propellant. Eastern Europeans drink vodka.
Now, I will confess, sometimes, when I’m communicating with Western Europeans or North Americans, I will refer to the Czech Republic as “Eastern Europe”.
But it is simply a service to them: because you can’t always deliver a lecture on the different areas of Europe and how to divide them up to people still stuck in a three-decade dead mindset.
But I have to grit my teeth when I refer to Prague or the Czech Republic as Eastern Europe.The Czechs don’t like it and, worse, it is not really accurate. It’s not Eastern Europe. It’s not Western Europe. It is Central Europe. And quite a pleasant place to be.
*(Well, it’s not really home-brewed any longer, but the fermentation starts at home and then is brought to distilleries.)

Why do Americans hate Russians so much?




"Americans” don’t hate “Russians.”
Americans hate Americans.
Most Americans just want to live their life and don’t give much thought at all about Russiansbut when it to comes to our fellow citizens… We don't even want togive them food.
Got cancer? Not my problem. Dont let the coffin cover hit you on the way down!
Democrat Americans hate the Republicans. They are racist assholes.
Republicans hate Democrats so much that the fact that their country got ‘hacked’ is purely secondary and perhaps even a good thing considering how things turned out.
Social Democrats(Berniecrats) hate centrists. They feel that they are the reason they didn’t win and they feel that Putin’s wikileak was therefore justified. They blame them for Trump because they just couldn’t vote for Clinton.
Centrists hate the far left: they cost them the election and now they blame them for staying home or voting for Jill Stein or whoever.
Rural Americans hate urban Americans, seeing them as lazy effete elites who live in a Woody Allen paradise of cocktail parties and orgies, crack-whores and gang-banging murder sprees.
Urban Americans hate rural Americans for being a bunch of uneducated rednecks who fuck their cousins and hang black people on Saturday night get-togethers.
Black Americans hate white Americans for being priveleged, while White Americans hate black Americans becuase White Americans aren’t privileged enough.
Some Americans hate LBGT Americans for parading in assless chaps. And LGBTG Americans are sure that all the straights are plotting against them.
Americans hate Americans for celebrating genocide with Columbus Day. Americans hate Americans for NOT celebrating Columbus Day, like a bunch of whiners.
In the current climate Democrats are angry at the Russian government and Putin for influencing the election. But this is dwarfed by the hatred they feel towards their fellow citizens and the system that allowed Trump to win.
And the Republicans are pleased as punch that the Russians have taken their side to defeat the real enemy: their fellow Americans who don’t think the same way they do.

ASOIAF: Is GRRM insinuating that the Faith of the Seven is not real?

Of the three major religions depicted in the story (the Seven, Old Gods, Lord of Light) only the faith of the seven has not depicted any true supernatural power associated with it.
He is not insinuating ANY of them are real. Other than the greenseers, of course, who are real, but not ‘gods’ in the sense that they dwell on some other plane of existence.
Sure, some of the priests of R’hllor do some magic, but that doesn’t mean that R’hllor is a real sentient being. It only means that magic exists. If Melisandre sees something in her flames, is the vision being sent to her by R’hllor? Or is it some power she has in herself? Or is it being sent by someone else entirely and purposefully to manipulate her actions?
As far as the Faith of the Seven goes…hey. It was de-fanged and de-clawed centuries before…suddenly it has two bona fide armies working for it and has become a rival to the Iron Throne in power and influence in Westeros.
A believer observing would say there is ample proof of evidence for the Seven intervening in the affairs of Westeros.
A non-believer would find another explanation for things.
What does that remind me of?
Religion in the real world.

Written November 29 2016

ASOIAF: How did Stannis and his knights defeat an army of 100 000 wildlings?



It wasn’t really 100 000 fighters. It was 100 000 people, including the elderly, non-fighting women, the infirm and children.
The Wildling army, i.e., the actual fighters numbered perhaps 20 000 or maybe 30 000. But a lof of them just ran.
. Still a sizable majority compared to Stannis’ puny army of 1000 or so.
But Stannis’ men were
  • better armed.
    • Other than the bronze-age Thenns, most of the Wildlings still live in the Stone Age. They don’t mine, they don’t make weapons. The best weapons and armor they have are stolen or looted from vanquished Night’s Watchmen. They armor themselves in wood or leather or bones. They fight with sticks or mauls(a stick with a rock on top of it) or stone axes, for the most part. Stannis’ knights, by contrast, have chain and plate mail, fight with quality iron-forged swords and lances.
  • better trained
    • Being a wildling is tough; you got to fight to survive. But being a knight in Westeros means you train under a professional eye for your entire life from childhood on. YOu train with sword, you train with lance, you train with axe and mace and dagger and…whatever else is handy and deadly. Your typical drunken-ass trailer-trash Wildling — with some exceptions, like, again, the Thenns — might very well bash your head in with a rock, but he doesn’t train. That’s for kneelers. OK, some might and Mance Rayder does seem to be trying to start some training program going in his camp. But it’s too little, too late.
  • disciplined.
    • They ride in formation. They lower their lances as one. And unless you are standing in a strong shield-wall with your own spears and pikes and sharpened stakes sticking out to cow the horses, they are going to kill you. Each mounted knight when you consider horse, armor and weapons is nearly a ton. Without iron discipline and common sense tactics(and the Wildlings have niether) your choices are pretty much stay put and die or run and die. The idea of discipline beating numbers is reiterated again and and again and again in A Storm of Swords. Indeed it is the main reason why the Wildlings have never established a toe hold south of the Wall for millennia. YOu’d think they’d learn.
    • Mounted. What’s tougher than a trained warrior armed to the teeth, encased in steel armor and coming at you to kill you? The same warrior on a a biting, fighting, armored vicious beast. I don’t know about you. But I would run. And probably die.
    • Had the element of surprise.
art by Tomasz Jedruszek
Written December 15 2016

Saturday, January 14, 2017

ASOIAF: What did Varys hope to achieve by killing Kevan and Pycelle?

By killing Kevan and Pycelle he killed the only remaining competent people left in the Lannister government. Things were getting dangerous: Kevan was actually bringing things to order and strengthening the Lannister/Tyrell alliance after all Cersei had done to weaken it.
Well, that is just not good for Varys and his plans.
But it’s not only that.
It’s the WAY he killed them. With a crossbow. With knives wielded by small children.
Who else has killed with a crossbow? Who else is small as a child?
Tyrion.
So when the forensic experts of Westeros, whose competence knows no bounds, examine the dead bodies of Pycelle and Kevan they will jump to the only conclusion possible: Tyrion, hiding in the walls, just as Cersei has long suspected, has come out and not only shot Pycelle and Kevan but stabbed them multiple times.
And so Cersei will manage to continue fucking things up for everybody, thus making it all the more easy for Aegon VI to swoop down and save the day, PLUS she goes a little crazier and more paranoid that the valonqar might pop out of her wardrobe any minute to strangle her.
I can think of better ways to go than being knifed by a gang of tongueless dirty urchins with daggers.

ASOIAF: What character in ASOÏAF deserves comeuppance?

Littlefinger. That bastard killed the Hand, created an alleged Ponzi scheme that beggared the Realm, orchestrated a massive civil war, possibly convinced Joffrey to behead Ned Stark, killed his own lover, has turned his ward (who some say is his own son) into a helpless drug addict, had a young girl(Jeyne Poole) savagely abused so he could transform her into a sex slave, and has confused Sansa to the point where the arrow on her personal moral compass is just spinning around and around and around…
That guy REALLY needs to get what’s coming to him.

Can you describe your first physical fight?

I was eleven years old.
It was springtime. I was living in a trailer park about six miles from Mt. Vernon, Missouri, which had about 3000 people living in it. And still does.
Everyday, the bus driver, a big middle aged farmer named Buck would drive our school bus all over the stoney rural routes of the back hills of the Ozarks picking up and dropping off children before and after school. It was a long roundabout journey that took hours, as our stop was the last stop on the line. I remember the rides took forever. Especially in the winter where the bus would get bogged down in the snow or the mud from the unpaved, rocky roads.
 I would sleep, or read or sometimes talk to other students.
In the winter I wouldn’t get home until five or six, due to snowy conditions.

There was a farm boy who lived about a half mile away from our trailer park in a huge house. His name was Joey and he was my age, maybe even younger but bigger than me. Thick arms built up by years of, like, shoveling manure and picking up cows or whatever farm boys do.
He used to sit by me and talk to me but I really couldn’t relate to him. I don’t think I was ever outwardly rude to him but, really, I was into Tolkien back then and wasn’t into talking about sports or anything like that.
This kid eventually used to kind of torment me, in a low-grade under-the-radar kind of way. Pinch me. Give me covert punches in the arms and so on. I came to dread the rides home.
One day Buck made a turn and went on a different road and stopped at a farm house. There were only about five kids left on the bus. My sister, a couple of girls who lived in my trailer park, Joey and myself. Buck was gone for a long time. I don’t know how long it was, but in my memory it was like twenty minutes.
While he was gone, Joey came over to my seat and just started beating the shit out of me. Whaling on me. punches all over my body. It didn’t really hurt but I didn’t know what to do. I had never fought before, other than little spats with my sister.
I am really not a physical person and the idea of inflicting physical pain on another person is just not something that ever occurs to me. I can be quite vicious with my tongue; I am relatively good with words and I can be very hurtful in that way. But not only do I not hit people, it never even enters my mind to do so. So I just kind of sat there asking him to stop. Eventually he did stop and when Buck re-entered the bus (with several bales of hay he had apparently just purchased!)all the other kids told on Joey.

Strangely, I don’t recall much pain in that situation. Nevertheless, I can not describe the utter humiliation I felt at the beat down I had gotten and my utter inability to fight back. I was a wuss and I knew it. Worse, everybody else knew it. All the books I read about heroes fighting monsters and Orcs and what-not…well that wasn’t me. I was a weakling. A nerd. The lowest of the low. If I was a character in the Lord of the Rings, I would have been, at best, Fatty Bolger. Only, I wasn’t that fat. (Back then. Now, a different story.)

Buck sort of grunted. He drove on. WE got to Joey’s stop. Joey sort of strutted out, grinning at me. When he passed by my seat, I stuck my foot out and sent his brawny oversized ass sprawling flat on his goddamn face in the black centre aisle of the bus. Mother fucker!
Under Buck’s disapproving eye, he left the bus, giving me a hateful eye that made me feel sure that he was going to kill me next time he was alone with me.
Afterwards, Buck asked me if I wanted him to report JOey to the principal, telling me if he did, he would also have to report me because he had actually seen me trip Joey. I remembered the little thrill of vengeance I had felt when I tripped Joey, and I told him not to report Joey.
Buck said he wouldn’t and that he never wanted to see him or me fighting again.

Buck never left us kids alone in the bus after that. A little while later, I moved to a different town.

Written December 16th

How can we tell if the recent report released about Russia having compromising information on Trump is true?

WE can’t. Unless we have seen Russian evidence (tapes, videos, signed documents, even an admission by one of his cohorts) there is literally no way to be certain.
With a lack of hard evidence what can we do? (And we are unlikely to get hard evidence, by the way: who is going to give it? Trump? Manafort? Cohen? Putin or some other high-ranking Russian officer? Please. Why on earth would they release any evidence they had? The Americans in the group could be tried for treason.
Let me give you some adviceIf you ever commit treason, do not admit it. Deny, deny, deny.)
Instead, like most things nowadays we are forced to go on what we know of the situation and fall back on how we think the world works. What does the Big Picture look like to you? As for me I believe the document in the broad sense in that I think that Putin has connections too Putin(or connections to connections, more likely) and I honestly believe that he is in Putin’s pocket. I have since December 2015, in fact.
Why do I believe that? Well, when I look around in Europe I see the following:
I see a thin-skinned demogogue gaining power in Russia, promising to make it great again and becoming, through illegal means the riches man in the world; consistently taking actions to break up NATO; coincidentally journalists, politicians and rich people opposing him end up imprisoned or dead.


*I see loud demagogues gaining power in Hungary and Poland, running on loud-mouthed xenophobic platforms, promising to make their respective countries great again;
  • I see a similar politician almost elected President in Austria;
  • I see up-and-coming demagogues in France, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic
I see anti immigrant rhetoric and demonstrations in Slovakia and Poland and intense anti-refugee positions among Czechs

  • I see rising hate crimes in Germany and nationalist parties gaining a little bit there
  • I see a nationalist movement in the UK winning a vote that significantly weakens the EU and throws it somewhat into disarray(and the EU and NATO both back each other up)
  • I also see a lot of ‘fake news’ in Czech media and on email list stirring up paranoia and discontent aimed at foreigners in the country(mostly fictitious foreigners as there are not, in fact, many migrants from Asia in the Czech Republic at all). I see stories all of a sudden complaining about black people in international supermarket chain ads, which probably use the same stock photos in every country — and which have featured people of color for literally years. And suddenly it’s a controversy and everybody is screaming about it.

  • And, and this is crucial: there are significant ties to various Russian money sources supporting each and every one of these demagogues or would be movements across the EU.
Folks, this is not a political movement. It's a goddamn franchise operation.
Then, suddenly, out of the fucking blue I see another billionaire xenophobic demagogue who suddenly comes to power in the USA. Oh, and guess what? The first thing on his platform is in July is non-interference in Ukraine. Oh, and suddenly, he makes a lot of noise of not supporting NATO countries who are invaded, unless they pay him/the USA off.
Oh, and fake news galore. Hillary protects pedophiles! Hillary eats babies! Everything you know is wrong! You can trust no one! If Trump doesn’t win, it’s because the system is rigged!! Hillary will surely nuke russia!
Even if Trump hadn’t won, America would have suffered massive damage. What little faith there is , post-Watergate, from the American people regarding the institutions that order the country and the world has pretty much been destroyed and supplanted by unthinking hyperpartisanism. I see it my Facebook feed every day. 
Look at the goddamn Christians!
 Nowadays, the Christians are literally annointing a serial womanizing, sexual assault Comitting, obviously corrupt, venal, vain, ridiculous spoiled celebrity as God’s Chosen One. 
They laugh at misfortunes. Mention Meghan Kelly by name and  they hiss and screech like Donald Sutherland in Invasion of the Body Snatchers at her or anyone who doesn’t toe the Party line, which has now become -- who knows? The Party Line is whatever the fuck Donald says it is this evening. Double-think, triple-think, quadruple think...
There literally seems to be no moral center at all to the so-called Right Wing. I don’t even how they can call themselves “Right-wing” any more. I mean, they are not fiscally conservative; they have no traditional values, just a balls-out naked grasp for power. The community-minded libertarianism of yesterday has been replaced by a selfish cruel might-makes-right philosophy that revels pretty much in pure wickedness.
I digress.
So, anyway. For a guy like me, seeing this Big Picture like I do, I believe the report, for the most part.
Now, that is not to say that there are not inaccurracies and mistakes in it.(I understand there are even spelling errors! Shock! Horror! I hear that is an automatic offense deserving of downvotes from some quarters!)
And as far as the golden shower thing? Well at this point, who cares? It grabs headlines and jokes, but it’s not even remotely the worst thing in that document.
But me, I definitely believe that Trump is just another Putin puppet, in the end. It just fits in the Big Picture.
Whether willingly or through blackmail, I don’t know. There is a difference but the result is a country that is ruled from someone who is naturally hostile to it.
Let me ask you some questions.
Do you really think there is NO dirt to be had on Trump? A pussy grabbing, draft-dodging, womanizing freak who prides himself on cheating the system? 
Do you really think that Putin is such an idiot as to NOT have access to this dirt? He is not an idiot. He has changed his constitution gotten rid of all of his political opponents and has come up on top of the largest criminal organization ON THE PLANET. He is literally the richest man on earth. You think he got that by playing Mr. Nice Guy?
Do you really think that Putin is just another Republican? Do you really think he has not been working non-stop to weaken NATO for the last ten or fifteen years? This is a man who literally cut off the gas to all of Easter Europe just to make another country do his bidding.
On the other hand....there is always this narrative...
Maybe reality looks like this:
  • A TV superstar, with a genius for business, who, despite having
    • billions of dollars and assets,
    • mad fame,
    • a gold toilet
    • all the pussy he can grab,
    • an incredibly hot wife,
    • a DILF
    • and a one-of-a-kind hairstyle

      Despite having all these things, he is is consistently downtrodden and mistreated by a cold-hearted, downright mean press. (Conservative tears.)
      But… He defies all odds and becomes president because he is sent by God Himself to deliver America from the doldrums of being the premier economy and world power of our time; while simultaneously ridding the USA of it’s long-fought bug-bears of racism, illegal immigration, drugs and homosexuality.

      He then moves on to make peace in the Middle East, defeat ISIS. He forces Iran, China, North Korea, and, CUBA to bow down and kiss our collective ass, gets Mexico to pay for him to build a big-ass (and beautiful wall); meanwhile, manages to ban abortion, stops off in Oslo to get the Nobel Peace Prize. And creates more jobs than anyone God has ever put on this earth. He and Putin go play golf together reflecting on their golden benevolence. 

So, whichever reality you believe is more plausible.
Pick one. Because there will be no real evidence.
And if there is, everyone will say it’s fake. So you have to rely on what you think is most plausible based on your private belief in what the Big Picture looks like.
Welcome to the 21st century.