Monday, October 23, 2017

Is the Czech election result a victory for Russia?

Both the New York Times and the BBCOnline seem to sort of be saying it is, lumping it in with recent victories of far-right parties in Austria, Hungary and Poland. 
They are wrong though and plainly do not have a real handle on Czech politics. . While ANO is not a traditionally "left-wing" party, they are not really a right-wing party either. 
Ondrej Babiš,  the Slovak-born ex-STB agent who heads the ANO party and is the probable new prime minster,  for all the MANY things I dislike about him, is not a Putin-puppet, as far as I can see, nor were most of the rest of the parties that got significant votes.
Nor is he even particularly  anti-EU, which a Putin-supported leader would be. He is  anti-Euro (like most people in this country — including myself). 
He may stand for softer sanctions against Russia but that is not necessarily an unpopular stance and doesn’t mean that he is working for Russia.
He is just out for himself, first and foremost as far as I can see.
There are accusations, which I totally believe, that the populist far-right leader Tomio Okamura is supported by Putin, and certainly he is of the same ilk as other far-right neo-nationalist politicians in, for example, Hungary.
Okamura’s party did get a significant showing (for this election, anyway — roughly ten percent of votes, technically fourth place, but there is not much difference between second, third and fourth place in this election) but it is far from clear that he will be part of a ruling coalition.
And even if Freedom and Democracy Party(Okamura’s Party) does become a coalition partner, it is not at all clear that that would be good for Russia in the long run anyway, as junior partners in coalitions tend to get crucified by the major coalition partners in this country.

Now if you ask me, I think Babiš is likely to be unpopular in Brussels in the coming years, and Putin may try to exploit this to his own ends, (which are mainly the weakening of the EU and NATO and a new Yalta-style agreement of non-interference in Eastern Europe, especially Ukraine, Georgia, etc) but this is not the same as the plainly Putin controlled parties in other parts of Central Europe.