ASOIAF/GOT: Why Did Robb Stark lose?

Written January 26th:

Three major factors:

• He lost the North.
• His military goal was thwarted by his uncle Edmure.
• His biggest political bargaining chip was thrown away by his mother Catelyn.

---

First we have to determine what Robb Stark’s goals were. His goals were

1. to assert Northern and Riverland independence
2. to defend the Riverlands against the invading Lannister forces
3. To rid the Riverlands of the forces
4. To win the freedom of his sisters from Lannister captivity.

In fact, he was winning for a long time.

He beat Tywin Lannister’s forces badly at the Whispering Wood, capturing Jaime Lannister with minimal losses and scattering his army to the winds. Tywin’s forces were literally running so fast towards the safety of Harrenhal that they were dropping dead from exhaustion on the march.

But they continued to raid, which created a stalemate: neither could defeat the other in their respective castles and neither wanted to march to open battle.

So Robb had the bright idea to invade the Westerlands. In the medieval political milieu of Westeros, this was the worst thing that could possibly happen to a lord. The whole foundation of the Westerosi political system is built on oaths that are given in exchange for military protection.

If you can’t protect your own lands, you really have lost the right to lordship in the eyes of most Westerosi.

There in the Westerlands, he utterly destroyed a reserve Lannister army, killing it’s general (another Lannister). While revenge was a perk of this strategy, the main goal was still to rid the Riverlands of the Lannister forces.

And it worked. Immediately, Tywin gathered the skirts of his army around him and went running west to defend his lands.

But two things happened then.

1. Theon and the Greyjoys unexpectedly invaded the North, capturing even Winterfell, blocking passage north and murdering Robb’s younger brothers Rickon and Bran. (Or so everyone thought.)
2. Edmure, not knowing Robb’s complete strategy, blocked Tywin from crossing the Trident and entering the Westerlands, thus rendering Robb’s journey west almost pointless.
3. Catelyn freed Jaime Lannister.

Losing the North was a big thing. Bigger than people realize.

It immediately weakened his political position among his bannermen, which was already weak due to his youth (he was, like, a freshman in high school) and relative inexperience. But prior to losing the North, as long as he was kicking Lannister ass, his crown was pretty secure.

But if he can’t protect his own lands…what kind of lord is he?

So he had problems with the Karstarks; he had problems with the Freys(whose pride was also hurt by Robb’s breaking of his wedding vow); he had problems with the Boltons, who immediately sent an army east to Duskendale and defeat at the hand of Tarly’s forces; and who then planned the Red Wedding with the Freys.

Edmure’s victory at the fords ruined Robb’s strategy.

Once Tywin had been forced south to King’s Landing and had joined forces with the gigantic, huge, humongous, massive, mega-army of the Tyrell’s, and utterly defeated Stannis’ forces, Robb really had no choice, especially when deprived of his biggest bargaining chip, Jaime Lannister.

He had to go north. Abandon the Riverlands to their own defenses and hope to god he found a way back north to get rid of the scurvy island rats that had overrun large swaths of the north.

At that point his ambitions had dwindled to one all-important goal:

1. Regain the north.

That’s it. He had to abandon the Riverlands, which were probably not a practical addition to his realm anyway. He had to abandon any hope of forcing Arya and Sansa back into his realm. And it was already too late to destroy the Lannister forces.

The catch was, that he had to find an alternative route north as the Ironborn held Moat Cailin, which meant passing through the Twins on the way to the marshlands of the Neck.

He still could have achieved that goal, but Bolton and Frey, having already read the writing on the wall and having become convinced of the inevitability of Tywin Lannister’s eventual victory had already planned for his murder.