Can Trump win the election?

Maybe.

I don't think that it's likely, but if a perfect storm of shit hits the Republicans and Democrats alike it could happen.

The thing is, it's not about what Trump says. It's how he says it. 

If you look at the victors in presidential elections, it's usually not about policies or background. It's about connection. People who become president connect to people. They have a sense of humor. They're tall and look all right on TV, sure,  but most importantly they connect. 

Obama, George W., Clinton, Reagan...all of them were fantastically able to connect with a large number of people. It's not all even about oration, either. Sure, Clinton and Obama are great speakers....George W isn't so much. Still, he managed to communicate a certain homey, country-ish humor. 

Compare George W with the current Bush and you see the crux of the problem that Republicans have. I can't even remember the current Bush's name!! He doesn't connect. He seems smarter, smarter than his brother; he has a impressive resume. 

But just as Romney was good ON PAPER, he's a terrible candidate in practice, in my opinion. He came off as a cyborg. A really, good cyborg. One that almost seemed real. But still, just a cyborg.

These guys come off as puny Romneys. 

My theory is that the Republican party has painted itself into such a politically incorrect corner and given the scrutiny given to presidential candidates, the only people making it through are people who are basically personality free. People who won't make stupid statements about women or minorities. And embarrass the sensible wing of the Republicans. And yes, many Republicans are sensible. 

Trump says screw all that nonsense. He's going to say what he's going to say. He's going to ad-lib it, too, using awkward turns of phrases and ill-researched facts and he doesn't care what you think about that. 

And he does have a sense of humor. Sure, it's a mean-spirited, school jock bully sense of humor. A childish egotistical sense of humor. 

But it's there. And it connects. And it comes off on camera exactly like he wants it too. 

He simply has more personality than the other candidates. His presence blows them off the stage.

And that's what wins elections, in my opinion. 

Now, Clinton and Sanders both have personality in spades. And I think that if it comes down to Trump versus Clinton he'll lose. I'm not sure about Sanders. 

So the worst thing that could happen is: the Republicans end up nominating Trump(a long shot, a huge risk that probably won't happen.) 

And then something goes wrong with the Democrats. Some skeleton jumps out of Hillary's closet. Or Sanders gets nominated. Or a third party leftist candidate appears out of nowhere. 

Then it could happen. 

The odds are against it. But it could happen.

Written December 22, 2015