Has Putin instigated the Syrian mess as a counter-strategy to the EU's instigating the War in Ukraine?

If the EU releases Ukraine, will Russia release Syria?

There is a global strategy on the part of Putin regarding both cases: and the goals are these:

• increase the reach of Russia’s power,
• restore it to its former ‘'empire glory” and
• create an alternative narrative to the American/Western European narrative.

Very simple.

His goal in Ukraine is mainly to keep the encroach of NATO from taking over another former Soviet Republic.

His goal in Syria is to

• build allies in the Middle East to counterbalance the US/Israel/Saudi Arabia axis of power there.
• And to have a sea port in the Meditterrannean.
• and to seize the moment when the USA looks bad in the eyes of the world vis-a-vis its own fairly recent blunders in the Middle East.

But for the EU to release the Ukraine would imply that the EU has the Ukraine. That is just…well, it’s laughable. It's equally ludicrous to suggest that the EU 'instigated' the conflict in the Ukraine.

The EU has enormous economic power, to be sure, but its political power is rather puny. It is NATO (which means, mainly, the USA) that Putin is playing with, not the EU.

Neither do I think it is really true that Putin has strong grip on Syria. He is one player among many. Possibly the most powerful player overall, but also the furthest removed. That situation is a mess. It is hard to see how it will end up.

One of his bigger goals, again serving the greatter goal of greater power, influence and security for Russia, is clearly to drive a wedge between the USA and the EU members of NATO.

. The influx in Syria has caused a refugee crisis in Europe, and yes, I think that it is causing internal pressure in the EU that the EU Parliament is quite blithely turning a blind eye to. And I think that a break up of the EU would be disfavorable to NATO.

However, I don’t really believe conspiracy theories that Putin is orchestrating the refugee crisis. It is just a by-product of the war there that happens to (maybe) play into his hands.

Written Oct 5