First, you're going to need the backstory laid out. I'll make it brief.
The Blackfyre Rebellions were a series of civil wars(or a generations-long civil war in many phases) fought between the TArgaryen Kings and the cadet branch of Targaryens, the Blackfyres. The Targaryens always won.
It all started with this guy....
Daemon Rivers was the bastard son of Aegon IV and his sister princess Daena Targaryen. The first signs that there was going to be trouble was when Aegon bequeathed the heriditary sword Blackfyre to Daemon, which was created a scandal.
The King suspected that his eldest legitimate son and heir, Daeron was actually a bastard born of his sister/wife Aerys and their brother Aemon the Dragonknight, who was Lord Commander of the King's Guard and devoted to his sister.
Daeron was a mild-mannered intelligent man, bookish and thoughtful.
Daemon by contrast was a great leader and warrior, utterly badass and an inspiring ideal in the martial culture of Westeros.
On his deathbed, Aegon the IV, having already proven himself one of the worst kings in history, decided to throw a wrench in the works by legitimizing ALL of his bastards. And he had dozens.
This created a legal conundrum. Who was to be his heir? Daemon was older than Daeron and had the Blackfyre heirloom.
Daeron(now Targaryen) ended up taking for his personal sigil a black dragon on a field of red. the opposite of the red dragon on a field of black. Since then, the varous factions have been known as "Blackfyres" to distinguish them from the other side. But their actual surname is Targaryen.
Anyway took a while, a dozen years or more, but this set off a chain of events that eventually resulted in the first Blackfyre Rebellion.
The realm split in favor of one side or another and fought.
In the end, the Daeron side won and the 'Blackfyre' side lost.
Mostly due to the efforts of another Targaryen bastard(but loyalist to the Daeron side) Bryden Rivers, aka Bloodraven.
After the first rebellion was over, many of the 'Blackfyre' loyalists fled to Essos, where they formed a sell-sword company called the Golden Company. The Golden Company is sworn to return to Westeros and reclaim their lost lands and restore what they feel is the TRUE Targaryen dynasty.
There's a lot more details to all this. And it's cool to read about. But it's just beyond the scope of a Quora post to go into it all--there are details in the Tales of Dunk and Egg(three novellas collated into the last year's A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms.) And there's still more info in the world book, The World of Ice and Fire. And there's still more details that we readers still don't know.
Now why do readers think that Aegon is actually a Blackfyre? Or a 'fake'?Well, first of all, the Blackfyres are NOT fake. They are real bona fide Targaryens. As Targaryen as Daenerys is. There are even doubts about the 'real' Targaryens legitimacy.
But why do people think he's a Blackfyre and not the son of Rhaegar Targaryen?
Well, starting from A Storm of Swords on, the Blackfyre Rebellion is referenced many times by various characters.
The War of the Ninepenny Kings in particular, looms large in the minds of various characters, as many of the older characters in the book fought to quell that Rebellion.
After that, there were no male "Blackfyre" Targaryens left alive, the last one, Maelys the Monstrous, having been slain by that baddest of all asses, Barristan the Bold.
There were no male Blackfyre Targaryens left. Does that imply that there were female Targaryens left? I would say it does.
So here are some various 'clues' that readers have picked up on to suggest that the Blackfyre rebellion is more than just a complex history given for backstory depth. These are all off the top of my head. If someone was to comment with more, I would add them.
- Catelyn uses the Blackfyre history to try to dissuade Robb from naming Jon Snow as his heir, claiming that it caused war for 5 generations. Some readers take that as foreshadowing.
- In A Clash of Kings, Daenerys sees a vision of a cloth dragon mounted on poles with a multitude cheering it. At that point she hears the Undying Ones name her : SLAYER OF LIES.
- In A Dance of Dragons, Quaith tells her to "Beware the Mummer's Dragon." While the "mummer" is almost certain Varys, who supports Aegon's bid for the throne and was a mummer in his youth, some have also used to it suggest that that Aegon's legitimacy is nothing but an act.
- There's this passage from A Feast For Crows:
.He forged a new sign for the yard, a three-headed dragon of black iron that he hung from a wooden post. The beast was so big it had to be made in a dozen pieces, joined with rope and wire. When the wind blew it would clank and clatter, so the inn became known far and wide as the Clanking Dragon.""Is the dragon sign still there?" asked Podrick."No," said Septon Meribald. "When the smith's son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sign of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign to pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon's heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust."
This is sort of the weirdest and shakiest evidence, because the Blackfyre sigil is actually a Black dragon, not a red dragon. But some people take it as evidence...I guess, 'underneath the bitter rust, the black iron' or something...
Others think it's some sort of Jon Snow symbology(a bastard(black dragon) who's actually legitimate(a red dragon.)
- Then there's the Illyrio connection:
- I mentioned before that Barristan the Bold slew the last MALE Blackfyre. Which suggests there was a female. This is thought by some to be none other than Serra, the deceased wife of the Illyrio Mopatis, who he's plainly in love with. Evidence for this is Illyrio's general support for Aegon (as a multi-billionaire in Pentos, why should he care about the Westerosi succession?)
Illyrio thrust his right hand up his left sleeve and drew out a silver locket. Inside was a painted likeness of a woman with big blue eyes and pale golden hair streaked by silver. “Serra. I found her in a Lysene pillow house and brought her home to warm my bed, but in the end I wed her. Me, whose first wife had been a cousin of the Prince of Pentos. The palace gates were closed to me thereafter, but I did not care. The price was small enough, for Serra.”
Lys is an island whose inhabitants exhibit the traditional silver blonde look of the Targaryens. The Targaryens have even been known to look for wives on Lys(when there were no sisters available, I presume).
2. Serra had big blue eyes. Rhaegar had purple eyes. Aegon? BLUE EYES.
3. Illyrio Mopatis is disappointed that Aegon is not there when he sends Tyrion off to join his company. And strangely, very very sad.
The last that Tyrion Lannister saw of Illyrio Mopatis, the magister was standing by his litter in his brocade robes, his massive shoulders slumped. As his figure dwindled in their dust, the lord of cheese looked almost small.
Why so sad? Why so disappointed?
- AEgon's army? The Golden company. OK, OK, the excuse is they just want their lands back and are ready to back any Targaryen, Blackfyre or no. But still. And by the way, Varys and Illyrio are plotting with someone named Blackheart, A Toyne. The Toynes have held a grudge against the Targaryens for over a hundred years. evidence: (Spoilers All) Complete Analysis of the Blackfyre Theory • /r/asoiaf
- Finally there's the 'meta' reason: When Illyrio sends Tyrion off, he sends a chest of things for Aegon. In a reading GRRM did(at some convention or other of this Tyrion chapter in the 2000s, Illyrio specifically mentions that, among the many things in the chest, there is a sword. This didn't make it into the final draft. But still. It's held up as evidence. Source: [Pre-ADwD Spoilers] Tyrion 2 - Spoilers for ADWD
Obviously he cut it for a reason: my guess is that he doesn't want to make it too obvious. Which is why I wonder if the question will ever be definitively answered in the books. I tend to think it won't.
But the question is there. For many, many readers. And it will be for some Westerosi, too, I'll wager.
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