Saturday, April 16, 2016

ASOIAF: If the Great Northern Conspiracy is true how does Manderly finding Rickon change things? Is Jon Snow still a bastard?


When it comes to the Great Northern Conspiracy, the questioner here seems to be referring to the theory that the Northern Lords intend to proclaim Jon Snow the King in the North and oust the Boltons, based on the will Robb made out in A Storm of Swords, in which he legitimized Jon Snow and made him his heir.
You know, because the northerners are a completely legalistic bunch. The ones that can read, that is.
You know what though? It's just not that simple.
  1. The state of Northern Politics is a complete and utter mess and, while the fact that several houses are planning to depose the Bolton's and rally around a Stark, by no means is it certain that they are all coalescing to give Jon Snow a crown. And there are certainly some houses(at least the Karstarks) who are genuinely in with Bolton.
  2. AS far as we know the will is still in the Neck, presumably with Howland Reed, though we really don't even know that. There's some speculation that the Mormont's have joined Stannis as a means to realize the will, but it's just as easily explained by the fact that Stannis freed Deepwood Motte and Mormont's just happened to be nearby fighting the Ironborn themselves. It's just as likely --perhaps more likely--they are all rallying around Rickon, if anyeone.
  3.  WE have evidence that there is a conspiracyNamely:
      • We have evidence that some of the lords are gearing up to support a bid by  Rickon Stark.(especially Manderly.)
      • We have evidence that many northerners are dis-satisfied with the Boltons, especially with Ramsay's psychopathic, vile tendencies.
    But
      • We have some interesting, well-grounded theories that others who are pretending loyalty to the Boltons(Lady Dustin, for example), half the Umbers may secretly not be.  But that's not evidence.
      • We don't have evidence that there is a bid to proclaim Jon Snow king.
      • We don't have evidence that all of the northern lords with Stannis are supporting anybody but Stannis.
I think that if Robb Stark's will comes to light, and it very well might, what we will see is a further fragmentation of the North with some lords bidding to support Rickon, some Jon Snow...and who knows? Littlefinger may lay his Sansa card on the table.(Not literally, I hope.)

I see the Robb's will "Chekhov's Gun device as a potentially divisive thing that further fragments the North, making them all the more vulnerable to an attack by the real enemy: the Others.
Chekhov's gun in Uncle Vanya misses its target and hits the wall, you know.

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